BOMB READY TO EXPLODE IN THE MIDDLE EAST; IRAN

 

The Middle East has long been considered one of the most important and tense regions in international politics. The Iran-Israel conflict that began at the end of February 2026 quickly turned into a regional crisis with the involvement of the United States. This study examines and evaluates the developments that took place between February 28 and March 7.

Once again, it's the Middle East, the world's boiling cauldron, and once again, it's America. Over the past few years, Israel had firmly planted the idea of getting rid of its biggest rival, Iran, in its mind. Its biggest supporter in this process was undoubtedly the US under the Trump administration. However, although Trump initially seemed eager to rein in Iran, he eventually opened the door to dialogue and backed down from Israel's harsh demands. It was precisely at this breaking point that, according to some theories, Israel's deep structures came into play. Allegedly, the Epstein scandals were brought back to the forefront through the Jewish lobby in America, leaving Trump in the midst of public pressure. Theorists and some journalists have suggested that the Mossad sent Trump a veiled message: either do what Israel wants and take Iran out, or all the details of his fantasies will be served up to the world, starting with the United States. Thus, less than a month after the Epstein scandals, the US decided to attack Iran and officially started the war.

On February 27, Donald Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with the talks held with Iran in Geneva and warned Tehran to reach a nuclear agreement with Washington "before it's too late." Commenting on the Geneva talks, Trump said he was "not excited" about Iran's stance in the negotiations and added that he had not yet decided whether to attack or not. On February 28, tensions that had been building in the Middle East for a long time turned into open conflict with air strikes launched by Israel and the US against Iran early Saturday morning. According to statements by the Iranian Red Crescent, more than 200 people were killed in the attacks, and it was reported that the targets included the residence of Iran's religious leader Ali Khamenei. On the second day of the war, the Tehran administration responded to these attacks with air operations called "Vadi-i Selam," on the grounds that its sovereignty had been violated. In the hours that followed, reports spread that Khamenei had been killed. It was reported that Iran responded by targeting Israeli cities with ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. Furthermore, it was reported that attacks originating from Iran also took place in countries where the US has a military presence, such as Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Iraq. On the third day of the war, a move that would have an impact on the system in terms of economic and maritime geopolitics marked the day: the Strait of Hormuz was closed to civilian traffic by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps for security reasons. Global oil trade was shaken, and the global supply chain came to a standstill. As of March 3, the conflict has transitioned into a "war of attrition." A war of attrition is a war strategy in which the parties aim to gradually wear down the military power, economy, and morale of the opposing side rather than achieve a quick victory. The goal is not to win in the short term, but to weaken the enemy in the long run . Meanwhile, dozens of people have started migrating from Iran and sought refuge in Azerbaijan. The tension has not only led to this movement but has also created a regional domino effect. On the other hand, the conflict has spread to neighboring countries due to Iran's attacks, and other countries have also gained ground with warnings that this situation has crossed all red lines. At the same time, due to the vacuum in Iran's leadership structure, a new process has begun in Iran, and the question of who the new leader will be has caused further confusion. By the fifth day of the war, not only was the region engulfed in flames, but the Strait of Hormuz was also affecting Asian economies, revealing the growing economic dimension of the war and its increasing importance. At the same time, Israel intensified its air operations on the Lebanese front, aiming to eliminate the border concerns it faced. While all these specific steps were being taken, the war continued unabated on both sides. On the sixth day of the war, Tehran was under heavy Israeli air bombardment, while life in cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa was confined to shelters. In Europe, tensions have grown despite the UN Security Council's efforts to broker a ceasefire. This 'hot war' has led to global uncertainty. The seventh day of the war was one of the most intense days of fighting. Rising casualties and security concerns due to mutual retaliation continued unabated. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated on social media that any agreement to end the war with Iran would only be possible after "unconditional surrender." In the same statement, he claimed that Tehran's naval and air forces had been largely neutralized and that the country's defense systems had been seriously weakened. During his statements, he mentioned that Iran's new future leadership candidates had also been killed during the war and that there could be problems regarding who the new leader would be, thus casting uncertainty on the US's post-war stance in Iran and what its interests would be. The latest statements from the Tehran administration, however, indicate that security measures have been tightened in order not to lose control and that a tougher approach will be taken. On the seventh day of the war, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated regarding the joint attacks with Israel against Iran, "More and bigger waves of attacks are on the way. We are just getting started. Within less than a week, the world's two most powerful air forces will establish full control and undisputed air superiority over Iranian skies." This statement foreshadowed that the war was far from over and would have global and economic repercussions. Iran responded by stating that it had no red lines and considered all targets legitimate. This made it clear that Iran was not willing to surrender.

This hot war that is shaking the Middle East has actually raised many question marks in our minds. Why has China still not taken an active role in this conflict? If a new alternative is to emerge, how will it take shape? Could Russia and Central Asia become possible alternatives, and if so, what kind of agreements might be made? Could these developments create another global problem? Another question is whether Trump, through this process, may have unintentionally paved the way for a Democratic victory in the next U.S. elections. When we look at Iran and the Mullah regime, will the continuation of the war help the regime survive longer? Or, if the war ends quickly and in a decisive manner, could it lead to a regime change and allow the Iranian people to breathe a little more freely? How long can the Revolutionary Guards maintain their power? One of the most important questions is whether this conflict could turn into a “second Vietnam.” Unfortunately, all of these questions will only be answered at the end of this power struggle. Another reality that has become clear during this process is that the world is no longer unipolar, but is moving toward a much more complex balance of power. We are witnessing how humanity’s desire for power, and especially the actions of someone like Trump—who often appears to act more like a businessman than a traditional politician—can lead to economic crises, the erosion of human rights, and the weakening of social peace.

If we were to summarize this war in one sentence, the saying “When elephants fight, the grass gets trampled” would describe it best.

In the end, the true consequences of this conflict will only become clear with time, but one thing is certain: power struggles between great states always leave deeper scars on the region and its people.

EYLÜL AKGÜL

SİYASET BİLİMİ VE ULUSLARARASI İLİŞKİLER

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