TURKIYE-IRAN POLITICAL RELATIONS AFTER THE ARAB SPRING
ABSTRACT
After the Arab Spring, Türkiye-Iran political relations underwent significant transformation due to changes in regional dynamics. The Arab Spring led to political instability in many countries in the Middle East, while Türkiye and Iran adopted different strategies during this process. Türkiye supported the Arab Spring by advocating for democratization and reforms, whereas Iran defended the preservation of existing regimes. These differing approaches sometimes strained relations between the two countries. The Syrian Civil War, in particular, became a significant source of tension as Türkiye supported opposition groups while Iran maintained a stance in favor of the Assad Regime. However, over time, a search for balance emerged in their relations. Both countries sought to increase economic cooperation and expressed a desire to engage in dialogue on regional issues. Particularly partnerships in the energy sector have provided opportunities for Türkiye to meet its energy needs while offering Iran economic prospects. In conclusion, Türkiye-Iran relations have become complex in the post-Arab Spring period, embodying both competitive and cooperative elements in a search for balance.
The world “Spring” usually symbolizes renawal, refreshment, and a hopeful beginning. In this context, the Arab Spring refers to a period when people rose up against authoritarian regimes and demanded a more democratic and liberal life. The term also to the “Spring” revolutions that occurred in Europe in 1848, reflecting a similar desire for social and political change. Since this civil commotion, which was considered as a hope, was described as the Arab Spring, I will discuss this process as the Arab Spring in this article intead of the Civil Commotion. It is possible to say that its results were not so much “Spring” as “Autumn”.
Keywords: Arab Spring, Civil Commotion, Türkiye-Iran Political Relations,
Revolution, Energy Sector, Economic Cooperation
Öz
Arap Baharı’nın ardından Türkiye-İran siyasi ilişkileri, bölgedeki dinamiklerin değişmesi ile birlikte önemli bir dönüşüm geçirmiştir. Arap baharı, Orta Doğu’daki birçok ülkede siyasi istikrarsızlılığa yol açarken, Türkiye ve İran bu süreçte farklı stratejiler benimsemiştir. Türkiye, Arap Baharı’nı destekleyerek demokratikleşme ve reform çağrısında bulunurken, İran ise mevcut rejimlerin korunmasını savunmuştur. Bu farklı yaklaşımlar, iki ülke arasındaki ilişkileri zaman zaman gerginleştirmiştir. Özellikle Suriye İç Savaşı, Türkiye ve İran’ın karşı tarafları desteklemesi nedeniyle ilişkilerde önemli bir gerilim kaynağı olmuştur. Türkiye, muhalif grupları desteklerken, İran, Esat rejimini destekleyen bir tutum sergilemiştir. Ancak, zamanla iki ülke arasındaki ilişkilerde bir denge arayışı ortaya çıkmıştır. Her iki ülkede ekonomik iş birliğini arttırma çabalarına yönelmiş ve bölgesel meselelerde diyalog kurma isteğini göstermiştir. Özellikle enerji alanında yapılan iş birlikleri, Türkiye’nin enerji ihtiyacını karşılarken, İran içinde ekonomik bir fırsat sunmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye İran ilişkileri, Araplar sonrası dönemde karmaşık bir yapıya bürünmüş, hem rekabet hem de iş birliği unsurlarını barındıran bir denge arayışına girmiştir.
Bahar kelimesi, genellikle yenilenmeyi, tazelenme ve umut dolu bir başlangıcı simgeler. Bu bağlamda, Arap baharı, halkların otoriter rejimlere karşı baş kaldırarak daha demokratik ve özgürlükçü bir yaşam talep ettikleri bir dönemi ifade eder. Bu terim aynı zamanda 1848’de Avrupa’da meydana gelen bahar devrimlerine de atıfta bulunarak, benzer bir toplumsal ve politik değişim arzusunu yansıtır. Bir umut olarak ele alınan bu Halk Hareketi’nin “Arap Baharı” olarak nitelendirilmesiden ötürü bu makalede bu süreci halk hareketi yerine Arap Baharı olarak ele alacağım. Sonuçları için pek “Bahar” niteliği taşımayıp bir “Sonbahar” niteliği taşıdığını söylemek mümkün.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Arap Baharı, Halk Ayaklanması, Türkiye-İran Siyasal
İlişkileri, Devrim, Enerji Sektörü, Ekonomik İş Birliği
Introduction
In this part of the article, I have discussed some historical events. The borders which have minor changed for 385 years with the Treaty of Qasr-i Shirin, signed in 1639 and determining the current borders of Iran and Türkiye are one of the rare borders not determined by colonial states. The Qajar dynasty, which officially ended in 1925, was the last dynasty of Turkish origin to rule Iran, and during its reign, Turkish-Iranian relations were able to fully develop. In the period between 1919, when the War of Independence began, and 1925, the nationalist, anti-imperyalist, fully independent modernist regimes that were established in place of the old regimes in both countries were influential. The Simko Rebellion, 1925 the Sheikh Said Rebellion, 1930 the Ağrı Rebellion, led to serious disagreements in relations.
During the Cold War, after Prime Minister Dr. Mossadegh fell from power, Turkish-Iranian relations quickly emerged from the crises and returned to normal. After the establishment of the Balkan Pact in 1953, the Baghdad Pact was established in the Middle East region, especially against the threat of the expansion of the Soviet Union. Iran joined this pact in 1955, which positively affected the relations between the two countries. However, after the Iraqi Coup in 1958, Iraq left the Baghdad Pact and Iran turned to the USSR in search of security guarantees. The USA included Iran in CENTO to prevent Iran from turning the USSR, and later, CENTO members Iran, Pakistan and Türkiye established the RCD organization in 1964. This organization, which could not achieve success in economik cooperation, disappeared along with CENTO and RDC.
Another repture between the two countries was the oil crisis in 1973-74. Türkiye received a refusal from Iran when it asked for easier payment due to rising oil prices, and this was the main reason for the resentment. Türkiye adopted a rather neutral stance in the process leading up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution. After the revolution, Türkiye perceived the incident as a regime change and an internal affair of Iran. In 1995, Türkiye entered into a major energy crises. Türkiye signed an agreement to purchase natural gas from Iran and a decision was made to establish a nautral gas pipeline between the two countries., but the military training and cıoperation agreement signed between Türkiye and İsrael in 1996 disturbed Iran. At the 1997 Organization of the Islamic Conference Summit, Türkiye was condemned for its cooperation with Israel. In 2005, relations between the two countries deteriorated further. With Ahmadinejad coming to power in 2011, bilateral relations entered one of their most problem-free periods.
Arap Spring
The Arab Spring is a series of protests and uprising that began in Tunisia in 2010 and quickly spread to other Arab countries. This process began when young people and the public took to the streets to demand social justice, democracy and human rights. In Tunisia, a street vendor set himself on fire after being treated unfairly by the police, triggering public anger and igniting a massive wave of protests. This incident led to the start of mass movement against the regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia.
The success in Tunisia inspired similar movements in other Arab countries. In 2011, crowds gathered in Tahrir Square in Eygpt to demand the resignation of Hosni Mubarak. These protests spread rapidly thanks to the power of social media and attracted great attention around the world. Mubarak was forced to resign in Eygpt after 18 days of demonstrations.
Similar incidents occured in other countries such as Libya, Syria, and Yemen. In Libya, the uprising against Muammat Gaddafi turned into a civil war, which also involved international intervention. In Syria, peaceful protests were met with harsh government intervention, which led to the outbreak of a civil war that lasted for years. The war caused the displacement of millions of people and a major humanitarian crisis.
The effects of the Arab Spring were not limited to these countries; these movements inspried resistance and democratic demands against authoritarian regimes around the world. However, in some countries the uprising caused instability and chaos instead of the expected democtaric transformation. For example, the conflicts in Libya and Syria changed the balance of power in the region and paved the way for new conflicts to emerge.
Turkish and Iranian Policies towards the Arab Spring
The reactions of Türkiye and Iran were notably different, reflecting interests, and historical context.
Türkiye, under the leadership of the Justice and Development Part (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, initially supported the Arab Spring movements, viewing them as an opportunity to promote democracy and stability in the region. Türkiye sought to position itself as a model for Arab countries, advocating for democratic reforms and human rights. The Turkish government provided support to opposition groups in countries like Syria and Libya, seening these movements as a chance to expand its influence in the Middle East. However, as the situation evolved, particularly in Syria, Türkiye’s stance become more complex. The rise of e tremist groups and the influx of refugees into Türkiye led to a more cautious approach, focusing on national security and stability rather than outright support for all opposition movements.
In contrast, Iran viewed the Arab Spring with suspicion and concern. The Iranian leadership, which is rooted in a theocratic and revolutionary ideology, feared that these uprising could inspire dissent within its own borders and challange its authority. Iran’s response was to support regimes that were under threat, such as Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, seening it as a crucial ally in the region. Iran’s involvement included military support and the mobilization of proxy groups, which has further complicated the regional dynamics. Additionally, Iran sought to portray itself as a champion of the oppressed, framing its support for these regimes as a defense against Western imperialism.
In summary, Türkiye and Iran’s policies towards the Arab Spring highlight the divergent paths taken by regional powers in responce to popular uprising. Türkiye initially embraced the movements, aiming to promote democracy and expand its influence, while Iran adopted a defensive posture, seeking to preserve its regional allies and prevent the spread of dissent. These contrasting approaches not only reflect their respective political ideologies but also shape the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
The Syrian Crisis and Turkish and Iranian policies toward the Syrian Crisis
The uprasing in Syria had a profound impact on the region, bringing significant transformations. By 2016, the initial protests had escalated into a full-scale civil war, with major involvement from international and regional actors, including Türkiye and Iran. The Syrian uprising emerged as an unwelcome challenge for both nations, disrupting their pursuit of regional dominance. This crisis exposed the underlying fractures in Türkiye-Iran relations, leading to a marked shift as each country supported opposing sides in the mid-2000s, relations between the two countries deteriorated considerably due to the Syrian conflict. Additionally, the crisis highlighted the interconnectedness of global, regional, national, and local political dynamics.
As a more players became entangled in the conflict and its scope expanded internationally, the Syrian crisis profoundly shaped both regional politics and the domestic strategies of the countries involved. The Syrian crisis has dominated discussions surrounding Türkiye-Iran relations, with each country backing rival factions. Türkiye and Iran have emerged as key competitors and indirect adversaries. This underscores the need to examine their respective approaches to the crisis, which reveal distinct geopolitical perspectives and strategic priorities.
The relationship between Türkiye and Iran in the context of the Syrian crisis is quite complex. Türkiye has supported opposition groups in Syria, while Iran has been one of the most important allies supporting the Syrian government. This situation has sometimes led to tension between the two countries. Türkiye has carried out operations against the YPG, which it sees as an extension of the PKK, while Iran has sought the increase its influence in the region.
Additionally, Türkiye and Iran have differing views on the future of Syria. Türkiye advocates for a more democratic government in Syria with the inclusion of the opposition, whereas Iran is in favor of maintaining the current regime. However, both countries share some common interests in ensuring stability in Syria. Therefore, the relationship between Türkiye and Iran encompasses both cooperation and competitive elements.
The Kurdish issue in the context of the Syrian crisis has significantly affected Turkish-Iranian relations. Türkiye views the YPG in Syria an extension of the PKK and perceives its presence as a threat. This perception has led Türkiye to conduct military operations in Northern Syria. On the other hand, Iran does not regard the YPG’s presence as a threat to its security interests and maintains a different relation with Kurdish groups in Syria.
These differing approaches have influenced the dynamics of cooperation and competition between Türkiye and Iran. While Türkiye opposes the Kurdish demands for autonomy in Syria, Iran seeks to enhance its influence y supporting Kurdish groups in the region. So, the Kurdish issue is a significant factor that increases tension between the two countries while also shaping some strategic collaboration.
The Iranian Nuclear Issue and Turkiye-Iranian Relations
The Iranian nuclear issue and Türkiye-Iran relations are complex and multifaceted topics that interwine regional security, international diplomacy, and economic interests. The Iranian nuclear program has been a point of contention for ever two decades, with concerns primarily centered around the potential for Iran to develop nuclear weapons capabilities. This has led to a series of negotiations and agreements, notably the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA) established in 2015, which aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the U.S. Withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 reignited tension and led to a more aggressive stance from Iran regarding its nuclear program.
Türkiye, as a neighbouring country to Iran, has had to nevigate its foreign policy carefully in light of the Iranian nuclear issue. While Türkiye has expressed support for Iran’s right to pursue nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, it has also been cautious about the implications of a nuclear-armed Iran for regional stability. Türkiye’s relations with Iran are marked by both cooperation and competition. The two countries collaborate on various economic and energy projects, but they also have differing interests, particularly in the context of conflict in Syria and Iraq, where their geopolitical ambitions sometimes conflict.
In recent years, Türkiye has sought to position itself as a mediator between Iran and the West, advocating for dialogue and diplomacy rather than confrontation. This approach aligns with Türkiye’s broader foreign policy goals of maintaining regional stability and promoting its influence in the Middle East. However, the evolving dynamics of the Iranian nuclear issue, combined with Türkiye’s own strategic interests, continue to shape the relationship between the two nations, making it a critical area to watch in the context of regional geopolitics.
Conclusion
In this article, I have discussed ürkiye-Iran relations with the framework of important issues such as the Arab Spring, the Syrian Crisis and Kurdish issue, and Iran’s nuclear issue. With the beginning of the Arab Spring, the political dynamics in the region changed, and Türkiye played an effective role in this process by supporting democratic reforms. However, Iran saw these movements as a risk of losing its own influence and tried to increase its influence in the region.
The Syrian Crisis has been an important area of conflict in Türkiye-Iran relations. While Türkiye supported the opposition in Syria, Iran sides with Assad Regimeand provided military and political support. This situation increased the tension between the two countries and brought their strategic interests to a point of conflict. At the same time, the Kurdish issue has affected the domestic policies of both countries, and Türkiye’s fight against the PKK, combined with Iran’s policies on the Kurdish population, has further complicated the cooperation and competition between the two countries.
Iran’s nuclear issue is another important factor affecting Türkiye’s security strategy in the region. Türkiye believes that Iran’s nuclear program could threaten regional stability. In this context, while Türkiye tries to balance its relations with the West, it also attaches importance to its economic and commercial relations with Iran. As a result, Türkiye-Iran relations are in a constant state of change and transformation within the framework of these complex issues.
Türkiye-Iran Economic Chart of The Last 10 Years
Türkiye’s trade and economic relations with Iran over the past decade have been based on several key factors. Since the early 2010s, the trade volume between the two countries has increased, particularly in sectors such as energy, food, and construction. Iran has become one of Türkiye’s largest natural gas suppliers.
In 2017, Türkiye and Iran set a trade target of $30 billion. However, U.S. sanctions on Iran and regional political developments have made it challenging to achieve these goals. Nevertheless, trade between the two countries has continued, especially through border trade and mutual investments.
Economically, Türkiye’s relations with Iran help meet Türkiye’s energy needs while also allowing Iran to access European markets through Türkiye. However, the economic difficulties and international relations faced by both countries are factors that affect the sustainability of this trade.
In conclusion, traders between Türkiye and Iran holds strategic importance but is influenced by foreign policy and economic conditions.
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