POST-TENSION IRAN-ISRAEL ANALYSIS AND THE CURRENT PROCESS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE AXIS OF RESISTANCE DOCTRINE
As it is known, on Monday, 1 April 2024, Israel carried out an airstrike targeting the consulate building in the compound of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, and it was publicly reported that seven military officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, including two brigadier generals, were killed. While the events caused a great reaction throughout the country, everyone's eyes and ears were on the Tehran administration. Iranian Revolutionary Leader Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei (سید علی حسینی خامنهای) and President Ebrahim Raisi (ابراهیم رئیسی) had stated that the necessary response would be given and this incident would not be allowed to be tolerated by anyone.
What happened after the Nowruz holiday was of course not easy for Iran, and considering the current process, the reaction of the Tehran administration to this incident was undoubtedly a good opportunity to prove to everyone that it still seems to be effective in the region. Regional researchers had stated that Iran would avoid the attack and continue its policy of patience, and if it wanted to respond, it would use proxy forces. As expected, Iran's response to Israel started with air strikes launched by proxy forces, but as expected, the theory of Iran's refraining from responding personally did not come into question, on the contrary, Iran carried out air strikes from its own organisation. Iran's personal involvement in the incident surprised everyone because the United States of America (USA) had warned Israel that in response to possible Iranian attacks, all necessary assistance in terms of armed defence in the region would be provided to Israel unconditionally and that it would not attempt any attack on Iran.
To explain the interest of the United States more clearly, when President Joe Biden was asked by journalists at a press conference before the attack what he would like to say to the Tehran administration, considering the possibility of any response from Iran, he replied that they would do their best to ensure Israel's security and then gave the message "Don't" for the Tehran administration, which explains the importance of the American factor in the Iran-Israel tension.
Now let's take a look
at both before and after the process.
Iran's Asymmetric Attacks against Israel
If we look at the period after 7 October, we see that the Iran-Israel tension has gradually increased. In this period, we have seen that Iran, with its proxy forces within the Axis of Resistance Doctrine, started to increase the asymmetric attacks that it had already carried out in previous processes, especially in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. At the same time, we can definitely say that there have been serious changes in asymmetric attacks during this period. For example, the Houthis have carried out 74 asymmetric attacks in the light of the latest analyses, and the attacks carried out, including the Babulmendep Strait and its surroundings, are of great importance.
When we look at the attack carried out by the Houthis, we see that both the intensity of violence and the intensity of destruction have changed greatly, and this shows us that the asymmetric attacks carried out are different from the past. To explain the dimension of the incident better, if we look at the first attacks carried out by the Houthis on large and small-scale merchant ships in the Babulmendep Strait in the past, we see that they generally caused minor damage to the target ships, but in the current process, we see that the Houthis have gradually increased these attacks on the basis of violence, which has now reached such a level that even the crew members of the ships are killed as a result of the attacks.
If we look at the Iraq and Syria front within the Axis of Resistance Doctrine, there are also serious changes in the asymmetric attacks carried out in these regions. For example, on Sunday 28 January 2023, three US soldiers were killed in a kamikaze drone attack on the US military logistics base Tower-22 in Jordan in the evening.
Perhaps one of the important events that
led the process to the Damascus consulate attack was the destruction of
Israel's Eilat naval base, which the State of Israel considered to be its red
line. On the other hand, when we look at the context before the Damascus
consulate attack, the effects of Iran's Axis of Resistance Proxy Forces in the
Levant should be taken into consideration.
The Process from the Perspective of Iran's Axis of
Resistance Doctrine
When we look at Iran's Axis of Resistance Doctrine (Iran's most important security and strategy practice), Iran's most important security strategy was based on encircling Israel in the Levant. As a matter of fact, the message in the Damascus Consulate attack had already developed within this framework. The fact that Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who lost his life in the Damascus Consulate attack, was responsible for the foreign operations of the Quds Force is seen as an important detail from the perspective of this process, and from this point of view, the message intended to be given in the Damascus Consulate attack is clear.
If we look at the axis of the Levant Region (Golan Heights, Palestine, Jordan and Lebanon), we see a serious break against Israel here, which we have already seen the Damascus Consulate attack with great seriousness as a response to the continuation of the process.
While the attack on the Eilat Naval Base, one of the asymmetric attacks, was carried out with the help of Shahid-101 Kamikaze UAVs, the fact that the attack was carried out over Iraq and then the Islamic Organisation of Iraq claimed responsibility for this incident is of regional importance. The downing of Israel's Sa'ar 6-class corvette at a very close distance during the attack on the Eilat Naval Base was actually one of the really important breaks in terms of the process and from the perspective of carrying out asymmetric attacks, because despite the air defence systems, Shahid-101 Kamikaze UAVs launched from Iraq were able to hit the Eilat Naval Base.
Of Course, based on these attacks, regional researchers, when they look at the process after 7 October 2024, they actually talk about the existence of a continuous trial and exercise process through the events experienced, which has made its effect felt in the context of the process we have come to. Although there are claims that the Houthis are trying to separate the attacks from Iran, in fact, the Houthis have implemented these attacks in the form of exercises at some point.
As a result, we have
reviewed the serious change in asymmetric attacks and their effects in the
pre-attack context
What was the purpose of Iran's attack on Israel?
13 April 2024 In the first phase of the attack, which started at around 11.00 am, Shahid-101 Kamikaze UAVs were used, and news started to appear in the media that the Kamikaze UAVs used would reach Israel after six to seven hours. Everyone had in mind what kind of a defence strategy Israel would adopt during this period.
In the light of the analyses made in the post-attack context, regional researchers attribute the reason for the use of Kamikaze drones to the fact that they were used in many different points within the scope of the axis of resistance doctrine and that they were a very good choice in terms of use because they were a difficult air threat for the target region. Based on this situation, it can be interpreted that the goal of the Revolutionary Guards Army is to use Kamikaze UAVs first to distract fighter jets in the region or elements such as the USA and the UK, which are included in the air defence system, that is, to bypass the obstacles to the main target.
In the following period, that is, in the hours connecting 13 April to 14 April, developments emerged that ballistic missiles were being used in the field. It was understood after the process that the ballistic missiles used were mostly old type and liquid fuelled, and the fact that these ballistic missiles were old type and liquid fuelled showed that the attack was not intended to have very serious consequences on the basis of results. If very serious results were to be achieved, solid-fuelled missiles and new derivative missiles that have been tested would have been used instead of the old liquid-fuelled missiles.
Another reason for Iran's use of liquid-fuelled missiles is that they are not easy to store and create safety problems, i.e. they need to be disposed of. In other words, the reason why Iran used liquid-fuelled missiles in the attack is seen as the desire to avoid serious reactions in terms of tension and to overcome the old type liquid-fuelled missiles from the existing arsenal.
In the following hours, allegations that Iran was using hypersonic missiles in the field of tension began to emerge, and it became clear in a short time that this news was unfounded because the hypersonic missiles we mentioned had a range time of 6-7 minutes and could have very serious effects in the phase when it fell. From another point of view, the Hypersonic missiles in question, being a new technology for Iran, might not have been strategically healthy because the possibility of this weapon, which Iran had been working on for many years, being caught in Israel's air defence system could have made the process much different for Iran.
REFERENCES:
https://www.indyturk.com/node/715071/dünya/4-soruda-i̇ranın-i̇srail-saldırısı
https://www.iramcenter.org/iranin-israile-saldirisinin-hedefi-neydi-2478
https://www.setav.org/podcast-iran-israil-catismasi/
https://www.iramcenter.org/abd-iran-geriliminde-yeni-asama-kule-22-saldirisi-2451
https://mskumubat.blogspot.com/2024/04/siddetlenen-iran-israil-gerilimi.html?m=1
https://www.defenceturk.net/israilin-deniz-ussune-kamikaze-iha-saldirisi#:~:text=İsrail'in%20Eilat%20deniz%20üssü,hava%20saldırısıyla%20karşı%20karşıya%20kaldı
https://www.iranintl.com/202404015608
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