CENTRAL ASIAN STATES AND THEIR FOREIGN POLICIES FROM PAST TO PRESENT
It did not take long for the Central Asian States
affiliated with the Soviet Union, which collapsed with the end of the Cold War,
the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the resignation of Gorbachev, to gain
independence. These states are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.
These countries have attempted to strengthen their regional and global political and economic situations. Many states, especially the USA, have increased their interest in these central Asian states that gained their independence. They tried to shape their foreign policies regarding Central Asia accordingly. Since some of these countries are of Turkish origin, other countries, including America, that want to establish relations with Central Asia have approached the Republic of Turkey as a bridge country.
RELATIONS BETWEEN TURKIYE AND CENTRAL ASIA
The first communication with Türkiye took place during the
Turgut Özal period. Turkey's interest in these states that gained their
independence increased, and the abundance of natural resources in the region
attracted the attention of Turkish businessmen. Since 1991, Turkey has aspired
to be the main country providing economic foreign aid to the region with the
aim of penetrating the Central Asian countries. These unrealistic economic aid
promises of businessmen did not come true due to Turkey's infrastructure
problems, and reduced Turkey's dominance in the region economically and
culturally.
SULEYMAN DEMIREL PERIOD
During the reign of Süleyman Demirel, who became president
after the death of Turgut Özal, the reality, power and economic resources of
the region were realized. After the collapse of the USSR, when it became clear
that the power and authority gap in the region would be filled by Russia,
policies towards the region changed. Turkey's unfulfilled promises have begun
to disturb third states in the region. Turkey wanted to be in the position of
distributing the resources coming from Central Asia and the Caucasus to the
European markets. In this context, it received the reaction of Russia, which
wanted the distribution and transportation resources to be on its own
territory.
Azerbaijan has served as the only natural bridge between
Türkiye and Central Asia. As a result, Türkiye understood realpolitik and tried
to expand its foreign policies with its own means.
At the same time, the Prime Minister of the period, Tansu
Çiller, visited Uzbekistan and, due to her warm welcome, declared in the
agreement they made with Kerimov that Turkey and Uzbekistan should be directly
connected by a highway and that natural gas and oil pipelines should be
included in this.
In 1995, Demirel met with representatives of Meskhetian
Turks during his visit to
Kazakhstan. During this meeting, Demirel emphasized that
Meskhetian Turks were not alone and stated that Turkey would support them. At
the end of the visit, a "Declaration of Understanding" was signed
between the leaders of the two countries. With this declaration, a series of
commitments were made, including increasing cooperation between Turkey and
Kazakhstan, Turkey continuing to support Kazakhstan's structural reform and
development efforts, and encouraging the circulation of goods, services and
capital.
Compared to other countries, Turkey was a special trading
partner for Kazakhstan in this period and stood out as one of its largest
trading partners. Among economic partners in the Caucasus and Central Asia,
Kazakhstan is one of the most prominent partners for Türkiye. The foreign trade
volume between the two countries has also increased rapidly. The foreign trade
volume, which was only 30 million dollars in 1992, reached 420 million dollars
in 1998. However, during this period, it was not possible for Turkey to compete
with Russia in up to 60% of its imports to Kazakhstan.
The USA developed a strategy plan for Central Asia in 1997,
taking advantage of the power vacuum that emerged after the collapse of the
USSR and the weakness of Russia. Within the scope of this plan, it is aimed to
accelerate the transition to democratization and free market economy in order
to improve relations with the states of the region. In addition, it is aimed to
ensure the security of the energy reserves in the Caspian Sea and to deliver
these resources to world markets. Regardless of Russia's control, the energy
resources in the Caspian Sea had to be delivered to world markets through
different means. It is also aimed to resolve regional conflicts peacefully and
ensure the integration of regional countries with each other and with the
international system. Finally, it is planned to support the commercial
activities of companies from the USA and other countries in the region. In
order for this plan to be successful, the resources in the region had to be
exported to world markets through routes independent of Russia. For this
reason, the USA has made efforts to realize the "BakuCeyhan" oil and
"Trans-Caspian" Turkmen natural gas pipeline projects. Because with
these projects, the incomes of the countries in the region would increase by
delivering oil and natural gas resources to the world markets in the east-west
direction, and thus these countries would be able to get out of Russia's
influence.
Türkiye was a bridge country for the realization of the American plan. Likewise, in order for this plan to be successful, it had to pass through a safe country like Türkiye.
ABDULLAH GÜL PERIOD
Türkiye was only able to catch up with the pace of global
changes in the late 2000s. After the bipolar system ended, Türkiye had the
opportunity to create diversity in foreign policy.
When Gül became president, he
gave special importance to the Central Asian countries. Especially the fact
that he had previously served as Minister of Foreign Affairs was an important
advantage in this regard. Gül pursued an active foreign policy during his term
of office. In this context, Gül wanted to implement a Turkish Union project without attracting the reactions of the USA
and Russia, two rivals in Central Asian policies.
RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN PERIOD
When President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became President,
Central Asia did not have as much place on the Turkish foreign policy agenda as
before, and this was due to the President’s focus on the Middle East.
One of the reasons why Turkey’s relations with Central Asia
have not been going well lately is the Russian Aircraft issue. The Turkish Air
Force shot down the Russian Air Force’s Sukhoi Su-24M type aircraft because it
violated Turkey’s borders. This incident was very important because it was the
first time since the 1950s that a Russian plane was shot down by a NATO member
country. This situation has tense the relations between Türkiye and Russia.
Following the incident, members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) announced that they sided with Russia and condemned Turkey. Among these
members were Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Kazakhstan leader Nursultan
Nazarbayev described the incident as “alarming” and took on a mediating role
between the two countries. This article has not been used before.
Another factor in the weakening of relations between Turkey
and the Central Asian countries is the effect of Turkey’s recently weakened
relations with the EU. Türkiye, a role model for Central Asian countries in the
90s, was a bridge between Europe and Asia. Being a Muslim and secular country,
Turkey was an example for these countries both socially, politically and commercially.
However, Türkiye has lost this position, especially due to the increase in
Islamist tendencies recently. This article has not been used before.
CENTRAL ASIA AND USA
Central Asia was not considered to be of vital importance
to US foreign policy or to have an important geopolitical location during the
Cold War.
Before the September 11 attacks, issues such as democracy
and human rights violations attracted the attention of US decision makers in
the region due to the nuclear capacities left over from the USSR, with the
discovery of energy resources in the Caspian Basin in the mid90s, and in the
late 90s. As a result, Central Asia has increasingly become a region of vital
importance for the United States.
With the "SUPPORTING FREEDOM" law passed by the
Congress in 1992 during the Bush period, the way was paved for aid to the
former Soviet Republics that gained their independence. Washington's first
security strategy towards Central Asia was aimed at the future of nuclear
weapons and weapons of mass destruction left over from the USSR. Because, with
the Mutual Threat Reduction Umbrella Agreement between Washington and
Kazakhstan regarding the nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan, the nuclear and weapons
of mass destruction in Kazakhstan were destroyed. In addition, nuclear
facilities, chemical-biological weapons and their infrastructures in Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan have been eliminated.
With the oil and natural gas resources in the Caspian basin
being connected to international markets in the first half of the 1990s, it did
not take long for US companies to settle in this region.
It is claimed that the US policy towards Central Asia
during the Clinton period was actually shaped by two different ideas. In the
first group, there was an idea that wanted the Russian Federation to transform
into a system with a liberal economic model and democratic institutional
structure without returning to its old imperial policies and was sloganized as
"Russia First". The essence of this idea was that Russia was no
longer a global actor as it used to be, but its presence as a regional actor
was not against American interests.
Unlike this group, there was another group led by Madeline
Albright, who became Secretary of State at the end of 1996, and was still
skeptical of the policies of the Russian Federation. This group emphasized the
Russian Federation's former USSR past and evaluated its policies within the
geopolitical framework, and therefore wanted to prevent the Russian Federation
from filling the power vacuum in Central Asia that emerged with the dissolution
of the USSR. In this context, Russia should have been prevented from
penetrating the region and becoming dominant in the region by strengthening the
sovereignty and economies of the Central Asian states.
Trying to reduce its dependence on the Persian Gulf by
focusing on energy resources in the Caspian Sea in the 1990s, Washington has
taken some initiatives to ensure the safe delivery of energy resources to
international markets and to reduce Russia's influence. Although the Caspian
Basin has probable and proven total reserves of more than 200 billion barrels
of oil and 293 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, there were problems in
delivering them to international markets. The fact that the Caspian Sea had no
connection with the open seas other than the Baltic Sea connection via the
Volga River in Russia, and that Russia had a monopoly on the pipelines used to
transport Caspian oil and natural gas, was a situation that was contrary to
America's commercial and strategic interests. . Therefore, by supporting
alternative pipelines in order to break Russian influence on the transportation
of energy resources, the USA both limited Russian influence and diversified the
routes.
When we entered the 2000s and evaluated the new period
policies of the USA on the Central
Asian level, it was observed that the center of gravity in
Washington's Central Asia policy shifted from the economic-political dimension
to the security dimension, starting from the late 90s and especially after the
September 11 attacks.
The reason why the USA approached the region from a
security perspective was Russia and China. Vladimir Putin, who seized power in
Russia, which had overcome the political and economic crises it had experienced
before, predicted more active political monitoring by the Moscow administration
in the former USSR region with the new military doctrine published in 2000.
Following the expulsion of Russian diplomats in Washington following an
espionage incident that emerged in the USA. It has led to a more careful approach
towards Russia.
China, which is seen as another country that has the
potential to threaten the economic, social, political and hegemonic power of
the USA, has attracted the attention of the White House, especially with its
efforts to gain privileges in the oil fields in Kazakhstan and gain power over
Central Asia through the Shanghai Five mechanism.
The Afghanistan operation, carried out by the USA within
the framework of the fight against international terrorism, can actually be
directly associated with Washington's energy policies. To give a concrete
example, although Turkmenistan made an agreement with Unocal in 1995 to
transport its natural gas through Afghanistan and Pakistan, the project was
suspended due to instability in Afghanistan and other problems. However, after
the USA changed the Taliban administration with the Afghanistan operation, a natural
gas pipeline agreement was made with Unocal in 2003. With the implementation of
this project of Turkmenistan, the USA aims to prevent Russian influence in the
region and a possible Iranian influence in the future. As a result, the most
frequently used way by the USA to achieve its goals for Central Asia in
relation to its global priorities, whether in the economic or military field,
is to engage in bilateral engagements with the countries in the region.
Although the US's settlement in Central Asia after the
September 11 attack was seen as a clearly harmful move for Russia, this
situation actually benefited Russia as well. Russia's support for the US's
Afghanistan operation after September 11 and turning a blind eye to its
settlement in the region is actually a different strategy of Putin. As a matter
of fact, Russia itself implemented the same policy followed by the USA for
Chechnya and legitimized this situation.
Thus, Russia has strengthened its hand in the policies it
implements against religious and separatist movements in its own territory.
However, in the following period, events such as the USA's intervention in Iraq
after Afghanistan and its support for the changes in government in Georgia,
Ukraine and finally Kyrgyzstan led to Russia's influence in other regions. Has
shown that its strategic interests are also in danger.
China, on the other hand, perhaps suffers the most in Washington's Central Asia engagement. was the injured party. As a matter of fact, with South Korea and Japan in the east, China's sphere of influence, which was restricted by the USA due to the American bases in Taiwan in the south and the gradually developing India-US relations after September 11, was now completely surrounded by the American military presence in Kyrgyzstan. However, the Afghanistan operation carried out by the USA within the framework of the fight against terrorism was actually supported by China for pragmatic reasons. Because, with this operation, China legitimized its oppressive policies in the Xinjiang-Uyghur autonomous region. Although China's political engagement in the region started after the second half of the 1990s, the Shanghai mechanism began to organize before the September 11 attacks in 2001. In fact, it appears that China is pursuing a two-pronged policy in Central Asia, one political and the other economic, in the face of increasing American engagement.
CHINA AND CENTRAL ASIA DURING THE SOVIET UNION
China maintained its relations with the Central Asian
region from its establishment in 1949 to
1991. It was carried out with Moscow within the scope of
the China-Soviet Union relationship. Because for more than 130 years, Central
Asia was under the auspices of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union.
It was on the same side with the Soviet Union from 1949 to 1959. During this period, these two communist countries maintained close and cooperative relations. They both needed each other materially and spiritually. Soviets The Union needed China's political support in the international arena, and China needed investments and military support mostly from the Soviet Union.
CHINA AND CENTRAL ASIA POLICY AFTER THE DISSOLUTION OF THE SOVIET UNION
China was one of the first states to recognize the
independence of the Central Asian states. has happened.
After China established diplomatic relations with the
Central Asian states, it immediately started negotiations to solve problems
that are very important to it. These were the problem of determining disputed
borders, the continuation of excess soldiers and military equipment in regions
with common borders since the periods of tension with the USSR, and preventing
the independence movements of the Uyghur Turks, who constitute the majority in
the north-west of China and the regions bordering Central Asia. One of China's
suggestions to improve trade and economic relations with the Central Asian
states is to establish the New Silk Road by improving transportation
conditions.
There were no significant changes in China's foreign policy
in the early 2000s. One of the reasons for this is the terrorist attack that
took place in the USA on September 11, 2001. Because after the attack, in
December, the USA organized military operations and intervened in Afghanistan,
next to Central Asia, and China expressed its discomfort when it established a
military base in Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan, one of the Central Asian states.
The establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization in 2001 is also important for the foreign policy followed by
China. Because China is concerned about the presence of the USA in Central
Asia, it has taken care to further develop economic relations with the regional
states by conducting its relations within the framework of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization. Starting from the 2000s, the strategic importance of
the Central Asian region for China has increased.
THE IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL ASIA FOR CHINA
Although the dissolution of the Soviet Union seemed at
first to be an unexpected and negative event for China, it generally had more
positive consequences. Because right next to China, a region rich in natural
resources, especially the energy resources that China needs more and more, has
emerged. In addition, this region has become a buffer zone between China and
Russia. In addition, China sees Central Asia as an alternative route to the
Middle East, South Asia and Europe.
Weak states that have a common land border with East
Turkestan have emerged and worried
China in terms of security and border. Uyghurs, one of the
Turkic communities in East Turkestan, such as Kyrgyz, Kazakh, Uzbek and Turkmen
in Central Asia
It is one of the issues that China has always had problems with. In addition, East Turkestan has natural resources such as gold and uranium, and 30% of China's oil resources are located in these lands. Therefore, the relations established with the Central Asian states are of great importance for the security and stability of the Uyghur Autonomous Region for China.
RUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIA RELATIONS
It should not be surprising that Russia, which has
determined its foreign policy goals as a result of institutional conflicts
since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has pursued an antiWestern policy
regarding Chechnya, Caspian Oil, Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline and TransCaspian
natural gas pipelines. The multi-polar nature of the 21st century international
system is dominated by regional and major states (such as Turkey, India, China,
the European Union, the United States of America (USA), Japan and Pakistan), which
are increasingly in need of Central Asian, Caucasian and Caspian underground
resources. Despite its desire to have a strong structure, the Russian
Federation still wants to dominate the regional resources on its own,
regardless of its weak economic, political and military structure, and is
making all-out efforts to achieve this goal.
It is also doubtful that Russia's policy of re-establishing
its dominance in Chechnya, which has openly violated human rights, will
succeed. Because the main reasons such as the fact that Russia's army of
150,000 people, equipped with all kinds of weapons and ammunition, sent to
Chechnya got stuck in the quagmire of Chechnya and cannot survive without the
financial support of the West, strengthen this suspicion.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, President Boris
Yeltsin and Foreign Minister Andrei Kozirev, who took the fate of the Russian
Federation into their hands, turned the country's political and economic
direction towards the West. According to the duo of Yeltsin and Kozirev,
Western capitalist states were not the enemies of the Russian Federation, and
in fact they constituted a model for the Russian Federation to overcome the
economic and social crises it was facing and requiring an urgent solution. According
to these leaders, Russia was part of the West and therefore should cooperate
closely with Western States.
Russian leaders, who turned their face completely to the
West and tried to transition to a free market economy with the support of the
West and took radical steps towards democratization throughout the country,
complained that Central Asian leaders did not take steps towards human rights
and democratization and that these states were governed by the authoritarian
and old Russian management approach. . Russian administrators accepted that a
comprehensive "Union" to be established with states with this understanding
posed a threat to the future of the reforms they had implemented in their own
countries. The Russian
Federation, which established bilateral relations with
these countries based on the concepts of equality and independence, left the
structure empty instead of strengthening the structure of the CIS, which it
initiated to establish in 1991.
Another point where the Russian Federation took action was
to turn the CIS into a "regional organization". Foreign Minister
Andrey Kozirev, who had previously ignored the CIS, announced in a statement in
1993 that integration with the CIS was among his foreign policy priorities.
Immediately after these statements, Russian administrators started their
initiatives to turn the CIS into a regional organization. By having the CIS
Convention prepared in 1994, the Russian Federation also took steps towards
economic union among the member states. For example, it was decided to
establish an interstate bank
At the same time, Western oil companies' efforts to build
international oil and natural gas pipelines angered Russia. At this point, the
Russian government approached the Eurasianists' thought and began to show a
more aggressive attitude towards international innovations and projects.
Russia, which does not want to lose its current control and dominance over the
natural resources of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Caspian, declared that
it was against any attempt to break this dominance and stated that it would use
all kinds of political, diplomatic and military tools, as stated in the 1993
Military Doctrine. Russia even threatened regional and non-regional states,
stating that it would use the available means at its disposal.
Emphasizing that the agreements to be made on the Caspian
Sea Continental Shelf are completely legally invalid, the Russian government
sent a diplomatic note to the British government in April 1994, stating that
the Azerbaijani Government cannot make decisions on its own and sign agreements
regarding the exploitation of the resources on the Caspian Sea continental
shelf.
The Russians perceived the policy followed by America
regarding the Caspian oil and regional conflicts as a danger both for their own
security and for Russia's position in the international arena.
While Russia, on the one hand, characterized the 21st
century plans of the American administration as expansionist goals, on the
other hand, it claimed that America was trying to infiltrate the region
militarily through NATO and thus through its American ally Turkey. Russia
thought that the real purpose of these efforts was to eliminate its own
influence on the region.
The Russian Federation should have prevented America's east-west energy corridor project as much as it could. In fact, this was the point that made Russia aggressive regarding Chechnya and Caspian oil. Despite its economic weakness and financial dependence on the West, Russia has done its best to maintain control over regional resources.
RUSSIA'S ONLY TRUMP
Nuclear and Conventional Weapons The only point where
Russia is strong against the West is the conventional and nuclear weapons it
possesses. Because the American administration knew very well the degree of
destruction of these weapons in the hands of Russia and was afraid that these
weapons would fall into the hands of groups that could not be controlled in the
event of Russia's disintegration, it could not pursue an openly anti-Russian
policy in the Chechnya war.
America still favors a Russian administration whose
territorial integrity is preserved and which will sign START II and III, CFE
and ABM agreements. For this reason, he openly opposes attempts to dismantle
Russia.
On the other hand, the agreement signed by Russia with
Kazakhstan on the Caspian Sea Continental Shelf is the second important
development that strengthens our thoughts. Because Russia, which sees the
Caspian Sea as a lake and therefore accepts that coastal states can have a
national sector with a maximum length of 45 nautical miles, has divided the
northern part of the Caspian into national sectors according to the midline
rule in order to obtain the economic blessings offered by the Caspian Sea.
accepted the division. Although it keeps this rule only under the sea in order
to ensure control of ships and platforms in sea waters, Russia is slowly moving
away from its old theses.
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