On Monday 1 April 2024, the State of Israel carried out a
targeted airstrike on the consulate building in the compound of the Iranian
Embassy in Damascus. Iranian Revolutionary Guards announced that 7 Iranian
military officials, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and
Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Haj Rahmi, who were assigned to the Quds Force
wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, were killed. The Iranian Embassy in
Damascus announced in a statement after the incident that the consular building
in the Embassy compound was targeted by six missiles launched from F-35 fighter
jets.
Iran's Supreme Leader
Seyyed Ali Hossein Khamenei (سید علی حسینی خامنهای) announced in a statement
after the incident that Israel should be punished and that the necessary action
will be taken, and Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi (ابراهیم رئیسی) also stated in his statement
after the incident that whatever is necessary will be done.
While Israel's action caused a stir, the United States was on
alert after the incident, fearing that Iran would launch a retaliatory
counter-attack, and warned Iran through its officials not to launch any
counter-attack. Although it is curious to see what Iran, which has come to the
decision-making stage again, will do, as in the case of the killing of Qasem
Soleimani, an important profile for the Iranian state, who lost his life in the
attack of the United States of America on Baghdad International Airport with
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) on 3 January 2020, it is seen that the
deterrence concept for Iran is more likely at this point.
IRAN - ISRAEL ANALYSIS AND US INFLUENCE
Iran, which has made a harsh
entry into the new year after the Nowruz holiday, has repeatedly stated that
the necessary action will be taken after the attack, but officials and
diplomats conducting research in the region state that they do not expect Iran
to directly intervene in the war and that they expect Iran to intervene through
the Houthis, the proxy forces, or through Hezbollah (Lebanon) if it is
insufficient. The resistance fronts trust Iran, but the lack of response makes
the process difficult for them. There are also those who believe that Iran's
direct harsh response may be in the direct interest of Israel and the United
States of America (USA) because it is foreseen that this situation is a trap
and that Iran's patience policy to date is intended to be abused and that the
current situation should be preserved.
It is seen that Israel is against
the Mullah Regime in Iran from its own perspective and has no problem with the
people, and likewise Iran is against Zionism from its own perspective and has
no problem with the people. However, it seems that in the picture that emerged
in the progressive process in the region, there are increasing opinions that
the incident is being tried to be turned into an Iranian-American issue rather
than an Iran-Israeli issue, because in the current process, the statement of
the President of the United States of America (USA) Joe Biden that "We
will do our best to protect Israel's security" against the possible
Iranian threat after the attack and trying to put Iran in a difficult situation
is thought to be evidence of this situation. As the process continues, the
French Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent a message that French citizens
should refrain from travelling to Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian
territories, which is an indication that the process is not progressing in a
healthy way and that countries like France, which has a certain position in the
world, are not very optimistic about the events that will take place.
In an interview with a local news
agency, a Lebanese analyst said that Iran is unlikely to attack an embassy or
consulate in another country because of its adherence to international law like
Israel, but Iran's reaction is inevitable and the necessary steps will
definitely be taken. However, Israel has stated that targeting the Tehran
Consulate means violating Iran's sovereignty because the Iranian embassy and
consulate naturally means Iranian territory, so Iran cannot accept that Israel
will bring a new equation in this framework. Based on what has been said, the
research analyst seems to agree that this is the answer.
Developments show that Iran's
response will be to apply a deterrent force against Israel and the United
States by intervening not directly but through proxy forces. It seems clear
that any sign of an attack in the region, most likely by the Houthis or, if
they are not enough, by the Hezbollah (Lebanese) wing, the process seems to be
moving forward.
SOURCES
https://www.iramcenter.org/iran-israil-gerilimi-ve-sam-konsolosluk-saldirisi-2477
https://tr.euronews.com/2024/04/06/israilin-samda-iran-konsoloslugunu-vurmasinin-ardindan-abd-olasi-bir-misillemeye-karsi-tey
https://tr.euronews.com/2024/04/02/iran-cumhurbaskani-reisi-israilin-samdaki-saldirisi-cevapsiz-kalmayacak
https://iramcenter.org/iran-israil-golge-savaslarinin-sosyopolitik-boyutu-2360
https://www.bbc.com/persian/articles/c0kedxz0dxyo
https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6068775/%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D9%84-%D8%A8%D9%87-%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%84%DA%AF%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%87
https://www.indyturk.com/node/714781/d%C3%BCnya/i%CC%87ran%C4%B1n-intikam%C4%B1-s%C4%B1n%C4%B1rl%C4%B1-tepki-%C3%BCzerine-bir-iddia
EMİRHAN YILMAZ
REGIONAL ANALYSIS COMMUNITY
POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
MUĞLA SITKI KOÇMAN ÜNİVERSİTESİ
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